Despite a recent uptick in EU manufacturing output, a sustained recovery in industrial production and metal consumption is unlikely before 2026. Early investments may aid the second half of 2025, but broader reforms have been delayed. 

Rising uncertainty from US tariffs, especially the 25% duties on steel, aluminum, and autos, is undermining confidence and curbing investment. EU exports to the US face major headwinds, with eurozone GDP growth projected to fall by 0.3 percentage points over the next two years. 

Energy costs in Europe remain significantly higher than in the US, further weakening competitiveness in energy-intensive sectors. While high-tech industries show relative resilience and Spain and Poland maintain production stability, traditional sectors like machinery and transport equipment are struggling, facing strong competition from China. 

Overall, confidence and recovery hinge on easing trade tensions and long-term investment, most likely not materializing until 2026.