Global merchandise trade rose by 5.3% year on year in the first quarter of 2025, driven by early stockpiling by North American importers ahead of anticipated US tariff hikes, according to World Trade Organization (WTO) data. Compared to the previous quarter, trade also increased by 3.6%, with North American imports surging by 13.4%, the highest globally, followed by Africa (5.1%) and South/Central America and the Caribbean (3.6%).

Exports grew fastest in the Middle East (6.3%) and Asia (5.6%). By product category, office/telecom equipment trade jumped by 16%, chemicals rose by 12%, and apparel increased by 7%. Unadjusted export values climbed by 4% year on year.

Despite the strong performance in the first quarter, WTO economists expect full-year trade growth to slow to 0.1% due to high inventories and tariff pressures dampening demand.