Global shipping, which carries over 80% of world trade, is under pressure from fragile growth, rising costs, and uncertainty. After 2.2% growth in 2024, maritime trade is projected to slow to 0.5% in 2025, according to UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport 2025.

Political tensions and shifting trade patterns are reshaping shipping routes. Ships that previously passed through the Red Sea now sail around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing ton-miles by a record 6% in 2024, nearly three times faster than trade volume growth. By May 2025, Suez Canal traffic remained 70% below 2023 levels, while the Strait of Hormuz faced disruption risks.

Freight rates for containers, dry bulk, and tankers have remained high and volatile. Container rates peaked near COVID-19 levels, dry bulk surged on coal, grain, and fertilizer demand, and tanker rates spiked amid Strait of Hormuz risks.

Longer routes also pushed shipping greenhouse gas emissions up 5% in 2024. UNCTAD warns that decarbonization will require fleet renewal, port adaptation, and investment in alternative fuel infrastructure, alongside managed, inclusive, and sustainable transitions.