Goldman Sachs increased its 2026 average nickel price outlook to US$18,500 per metric ton, up from a previous estimate of US$17,200. This change responded to expectations of tighter supply from Indonesia, the world's top producer. Reduced mining quota allocations and ongoing sulfur shortages currently impact refined nickel output.

The bank predicted a 1% yearly drop in Indonesian supply for 2026, the first such decrease in ten years. Although supplementary quotas may arrive in the third quarter to stabilize the market, prices could stay high if sulfur deficits continue. Such shortages potentially trigger further production cuts at high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) facilities.