Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, coking coal prices have fluctuated significantly. After peaking in April 2022, prices began to decline due to increased supply and weakening demand. Currently, both thermal and coking coal prices are at their lowest levels in four years.

If the conflict ends, Russian coal production and exports will likely continue declining, especially as Western sanctions remain. While Russia has shifted exports to Asia, logistical challenges and high transportation costs limit its competitiveness against Australia and Indonesia. Additionally, falling coal prices have pushed many Russian coal companies into financial distress.

Globally, post-conflict coal supply may exceed demand, further suppressing prices. Meanwhile, the transition to clean energy will reduce long-term coal demand, posing further challenges to Russia’s coal exports.