BHP’s latest Economic and Commodity Outlook highlighted steady iron ore prices and strong copper demand in the first half of 2025. Iron ore values remained stable, supported by robust Chinese steel production and supply disruptions, including weather-related shipment delays and safety checks at Chinese mines, which reduced port stockpiles. BHP expects shipments to normalize, with inventories likely to rise over the next year.

The miner estimates profitable iron ore production requires prices between US$80 and US$100 per ton CFR to keep production profitable. By late 2025, Guinea’s Simandou project is expected to deliver higher-grade ore, alongside new output from Chinese mines and major producers. In copper, Chinese demand rose 8% in early 2025, driven by replacement programs and exports, while trade uncertainties increased price volatility.