Citibank analysts predict a stronger trend for tin demand by the second quarter of 2026, driven by manufacturing recovery and lower US interest rates. Tin has been 2025's top-performing base metal; LME three-month prices have risen by more than US$6,000/ton since January, an increase of 22%, reaching US$35,393/ton on October 15.

Supply remains a concern, primarily due to structural issues in Myanmar and Indonesia, keeping global mine supply below 2023 levels.

While not yet a major deficit, improving demand suggests a potential market imbalance. Upcoming US Supreme Court hearings in November and January regarding presidential tariffs and the Federal Reserve may act as catalysts, potentially extending investor interest from precious metals to base metals.