Nornickel predicts an oversupply in the global nickel market for this year and next. The 2025 and 2026 surpluses have been significantly revised upwards, both years with increases of more than 100%. This is primarily driven by the continued release of nickel production capacity in Indonesia. 

From a supply and demand perspective, global nickel inventories continue to accumulate amid rising oversupply expectations. Recently, nickel inventories in the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) have both rebounded, indicating a significant increase in supply pressure in the spot market. 

Regarding prices, influenced by the widening expectations of ample supply and insufficient demand recovery momentum, nickel prices have continued to fluctuate weakly after falling from previous highs, with limited short-term rebound potential. 

On the downstream application side, while there are still structural bright spots in the stainless steel and new energy-related industries, overall demand growth is insufficient to reverse the oversupply situation in the market. 

Overall, Nornickel's upward revision of its nickel oversupply forecast is likely to continue to dampen market confidence, and nickel prices may find support amidst wide fluctuations. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and the progress of global demand recovery, as these will be important indicators for judging price turning points.