Australia's iron ore (62% Fe, CFR China) price on March 12 surged by US$3.8, reaching the US$110 mark. The increase matched the level recorded on October 8, 2024, and marked the highest level since July 8, 2024. As of yesterday, iron ore prices have risen by a total of US$7.75 over the past six trading days, representing an increase of 7.8%. Since the beginning of this month, prices have increased by US$8.3, up 8.16%, while the year-to-date performance has turned positive with a cumulative rise of US$3.5, or 3.28%.

Australian media reported that the Pilbara mining region in Australia is facing the threat of a large-scale strike not seen in decades. At the same time, BHP’s Newman fines have been placed on China’s restriction list. Next Friday, March 20, has been set as the final cargo pickup deadline, after which no further cargo clearance from the port will be permitted, pushing iron ore prices higher.

Meanwhile, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have reached a stalemate, contributing to rising energy prices and lifting China’s ferrous commodity futures, while spot steel prices have also strengthened. In addition, declining global iron ore shipments have provided further support to the rally.

Market participants noted that although shipments from Australia and Brazil have declined, port inventories in China remain at historically high levels. After the conclusion of China’s Two Sessions, steel mills have gradually resumed production, supporting iron ore demand. However, the recovery of downstream demand in China remains slow, suggesting that iron ore prices may fluctuate at high levels in the short term, with macro and geopolitical conflicts remaining key factors to watch.