The Geneva trade negotiations between China and the US led to a significant reduction in tariff rates, boosting market confidence and sparking a rapid rebound in Chinese steel prices. Some home appliance manufacturers responded by increasing steel inventories.

Despite improved sentiment and more overseas inquiries, China’s actual steel export demand has yet to see a meaningful recovery. Over half of surveyed companies reported no improvement in export orders. Analysts attribute this to several main factors. First, weakened export competitiveness due to rising domestic hot-rolled coil prices and growing port inventories. Since May, the inventory of hot-rolled coils in Tangshan Port has accumulated for two consecutive weeks.

Meanwhile, although tariff rates between China and the US will be significantly decreased, the long-standing US Section 232 measures and dual anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on Chinese steel have still existed. Besides, much of the recent export activity appears to stem from short-term stockpiling during the 90-day tariff suspension, with limited long-term demand impact.