At the beginning of 2025, China’s cold-rolled steel market saw a boost from equipment renewal, the old-for-new policy, and rising export orders driven by tariff expectations following Trump’s re-election. Private steel mills were active in production, and cold-rolled output remained high. However, overall demand was lackluster.

By June, steel mills began scheduled maintenance and production reductions as end-user sectors entered the off-season, leading to a notable weakening in overall demand. Market activity turned cautious, with most traders offering limited discounts to encourage transactions.

Looking ahead, continued support from the old-for-new policy and green transformation initiatives is expected to drive consumption of durable goods and stimulate emerging demand in sectors like charging infrastructure and energy storage.

While a weak balance of supply and demand is expected in the second half, improvements in funding and policy, especially in the fourth quarter, could spur restocking and drive a modest recovery.