Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) predicted a 1.7% decline in crude steel output for the first quarter of 2026 due to stagnant activity in the construction and manufacturing industries. Therefore, annual production for the fiscal year ending March 2026 was expected to total 80.33 million tons, a year-on-year drop of 3.2% and the lowest level since 1968.

Export demand was also projected to slip by 0.5%, with total steel product demand falling to 18.27 million tons.

Although Japan’s crude steel output has plummeted to two-thirds of its 2007 peak, METI expects production levels to remain relatively stable in the coming months despite the lack of a formal forecast for the next fiscal year.