Indonesia is set to impose export taxes on nickel and coal starting April 1, prompting Tsingshan Holding Group’s Indonesian operations to consider raising export prices. This development is expected to increase cost pressure on Taiwanese steel mills, which were already planning modest price adjustments for April, potentially leading to a larger-than-expected price hike.

Looking at the overall market performance in March, trading activity remained subdued due to a persistent stalemate between buyers and sellers, characterized by “high costs and weak demand.” Buyers attempted to push for lower purchase prices, while sellers faced continuous increases in raw material costs alongside a notable decline in low-priced inventory. 

Without the flexibility to reduce prices to stimulate orders, overall transactions remained slow throughout the month. Nevertheless, prices held relatively stable, and earlier concerns about aggressive low-price selling driven by accounting considerations did not materialize. Instead, market sentiment gradually shifted toward expectations of further price increases in April, resulting in a modest rise of approximately NT$1,000/ton in market prices.

Following cumulative price increases of around US$65/ton by Indonesian Tsingshan in February and March, the market had already priced in additional upward adjustments, with expectations ranging between NT$2,000-3,000/ton. Recently, Indonesian Tsingshan has announced further hikes in export prices, which may amplify the upward momentum for downstream steel pricing. 

Some market participants indicated that if Indonesian price increases exceed US$30/ton, April prices could surge by as much as NT$5,000/ton, similar to the sharp rise seen in January.