Brazil’s steel exports and production are expected to decline by 11% and 2%, respectively, in 2025 due to new 25% US tariffs on imported steel, according to the national economic research institute Ipea. The tariffs could reduce steel output by 700,000 metric tons per year and result in an export loss of 1.6 million tons.

The US was Brazil’s top semi-finished steel buyer in 2024, shipping 3.4 million tons of slabs. However, Brazil’s local steelmakers are more concerned about rising Chinese imports. Despite Brazil imposing a 25% tariff on 11 steel products in 2024, the imports still hit record highs; almost 70% of imports were from China.