The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecasts a 6.7% rise in global steel capacity by 2027, about 165 million tons, with nearly 60% of this growth coming from Asia, especially China and India. However, global steel demand is expected to grow just 0.7% annually through 2030, driven mainly by ASEAN and MENA regions, while China’s demand is projected to decline. 

This imbalance may push capacity utilization down to 70%, adding pressure to even efficient producers. Steel prices and profitability have plunged from 2021 highs and remain low. 

Heavy subsidization, particularly in China, continues to distort competition. Rising Chinese exports have triggered a spike in trade protection measures, with 81 anti-dumping investigations into steel products launched globally in the past year. 

Moreover, overcapacity is also slowing investment in green steel, with over 40% of new capacity still relying on the high-emission BF/BOF method.