Despite growing trade barriers, China’s steel exports are projected to hit a record 115-120 million tons this year, up by 4-9% from 2024, according to analysts. The surge reflects weak domestic demand following the property market slump, pushing mills to seek overseas buyers. 

Exports to Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Thailand rose sharply in the first seven months, while shipments to Vietnam and South Korea declined due to anti-dumping duties. To bypass tariffs, Chinese producers are shifting toward semi-finished products, with billet exports tripling and rebar shipments soaring by nearly 80%. 

However, industry experts warn that protectionism is tightening and overseas markets are becoming saturated, suggesting this year could mark the peak. By 2026, China’s steel exports are expected to retreat to around 100-105 million tons.