The World Steel Association (worldsteel) released its latest Short Range Outlook, projecting global steel demand to remain flat in 2025 at around 1,750 million tons (Mt), and rise by 1.3% to 1,772 million tons in 2026. Demand is expected to bottom out in 2025 and see moderate growth in 2026, supported by economic resilience, public infrastructure investment, and easing financing conditions.

Growth in 2026 is driven by a mix of powerful regional trends, as a slower decline in China and strong demand in India, Vietnam, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, alongside a recovery in Europe. However, manufacturing sector pressures, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainty remain key risks.

China’s steel demand is forecast to fall 2.0% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026. Developing economies excluding China are expected to grow 3.4% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026, led by India. The developed world is projected to decline 0.5% in 2025 before rebounding 1.5% in 2026.