China’s decision to introduce an export licensing system for most steel products from January 1, 2026, is widely viewed as an attempt to rein in surging exports and curb tax-evasion practices, amid expectations that steel exports will reach a new high in 2025. The move follows a rise in global anti-dumping cases against Chinese steel since 2024 and is intended to slow export growth and ease trade frictions. 

However, market participants say the policy lacks key details, particularly the absence of an invoice requirement, which may limit its effectiveness in eliminating tax-related practices.

Analysts note that with domestic steel demand weakening and capacity reductions stalled, exports remain critical for mills and traders to sustain volumes. As a result, any decline in exports in 2026 is expected to be mild.

The licensing system is therefore seen more as a tool to improve oversight of export flows than to sharply reduce total export volumes, especially given the need to balance trade control with economic growth.