As Europe enters 2026, the flat steel market is set to be shaped more by regulation than by traditional price cycles. Stable mill supply, weak end-user demand and a tightening regulatory framework are expected to outweigh supply-demand dynamics. 

The implementation of CBAM, changes in benchmark emissions values, and stricter import safeguard measures are seen as key forces influencing price formation. While mills continue to push for higher offers, buyers remain cautious amid sluggish demand from the automotive, construction, and engineering sectors.

New safeguard rules, including a sharper cut in quotas and a higher penalty tariff, combined with CBAM-related costs, are reducing the attractiveness of imports and supporting a higher domestic price floor. Market participants expect prices in early 2026 to rely more on regulatory support than on demand recovery, with meaningful improvement unlikely before economic activity strengthens later in the year.