As 2026 begins, China has implemented an annual steel export licensing system. With the New Year holiday ending last weekend, export price trends are expected to become clearer after markets reopen on January 5. Chinese traders said exporters and steel mills are actively adjusting to the new policy, suggesting that the era of ultra-low pricing may be coming to an end.

Amid tighter global trade controls, the chance of steel prices collapsing again appears limited, although regional price competition is likely to persist. 

Industry sources noted that the steel market is moving away from an era of flexible, grey-area trading, as measures such as carbon border taxes, sanctions, and stricter origin checks place greater control in the hands of governments worldwide.