Global long steel markets continue to face weak demand, rising supply, and intense competition, with mills operating below optimal levels. Demand remains flat and partly seasonal, while new capacity keeps entering the market, worsening the supply-demand balance. Chinese exports continue as exporters compete for fewer open markets due to protective barriers. Although prices appear stable, confidence is lacking, as mills struggle to maintain profitability and buyers avoid new purchases.

Uncertainty remains high. China is expected to continue exporting around 10 million tons monthly. Meanwhile, US imports may decline by 10 million tons annually due to the 50% Section 232 tariffs, and the EU’s safeguard measures could remove another 20 million tons of import demand. This may result in difficult market conditions for exporters in 2026.

Long steel imports into the EU have nearly stopped due to CBAM-related uncertainties and reduced quotas, though domestic prices are expected to rise by early 2026 due to the absence of import alternatives. The US market also remains oversupplied, with sentiment weakened by the prolonged government shutdown.