A briefing note released today highlights growing risks for Australia’s metallurgical coal exports to India. While BHP and Whitehaven Coal remain optimistic about long-term demand, India is taking steps to reduce reliance on imports, boosting domestic coal production and exploring met coal-free steelmaking.

India’s aim is clear: greater energy security through reduced dependence on Australian coal. Experts Simon Nicholas and Saumya Nautiyal note that both miners and the federal government appear unaware of these trends. Although BHP and Whitehaven ship significant volumes to India and report confidence in long-term demand, the country is increasingly sourcing metallurgical coal from competitors such as the US, Mozambique, Mongolia, and potentially Canada. Exports from Australia to India have fallen since 2021, dropping 11% in 2024 alone.

India’s Atmanirbhar policy has ramped up domestic thermal coal production beyond 1 billion tons in 2024, with metallurgical coal next. Long-term, India is incentivized to adopt alternative steelmaking technologies, including scrap-steel recycling and hydrogen-based methods, further reducing import reliance.