Ford might face up to a US$1 billion loss on operating earnings following a September 16 fire at Novelis’ Oswego, New York aluminum plant. The facility provides about 40% of the aluminum sheet for the US auto industry, essential for Ford’s lucrative F-Series pickups.

Analysts expect that the damage could be due to 20,000 to 50,000 lost F-Series units in November and December. Ford will temporarily halt production at its Dearborn Truck and Rouge Electric Vehicle Center next week due to the resulting supply scarcity.

With much of the Novelis plant expected to be offline until early 2026, the shortage complicates Ford’s supply chain issues, which include existing US aluminum tariffs. Novelis is utilizing its worldwide network and collaborating with other companies to address the significant supply gap.