By 2026, primary aluminum production in the Southeast Asian region is projected to increase to around 2.7 million tons, with Indonesia being the main contributor to this growth. However, due to the gradual ramp-up of new capacity and strong export demand, supply is expected to remain tight in the first quarter of next year.

Indonesia is advancing several new and expanded aluminum smelting projects, many of which involve Chinese investors. These initiatives will help Indonesia better utilize its bauxite resources and develop downstream industries. 

Vietnam and Malaysia are also gradually bringing new capacity online, with Malaysia's hydropower-based production attracting greater attention in the European market.

Nevertheless, Indonesian smelters still rely heavily on coal-fired power, and the transition to green energy is progressing slowly, which could affect the pace of production growth. Additionally, new local aluminum processing plants will consume a portion of the primary aluminum, further impacting export availability.

In short, while the upward trend in Southeast Asia's aluminum output is clear, supply is likely to lag behind demand in the near term, requiring close attention to the progress of new project commissioning and the stability of power supply.