South32’s Mozal aluminum smelter in Mozambique has entered full shutdown and maintenance as of March 15, following a collapse in its cross-border power supply system. The outage is expected to cut global aluminum supply by about 0.8%, supporting prices amid already tight inventories.

Prolonged drought has reduced hydropower output, while South Africa’s Eskom proposed power tariffs far above viable levels for aluminum production.

The shutdown may impact regional economies and accelerate shifts toward energy reallocation and higher-value power usage. Market analysts warn that combined supply risks could push aluminum prices toward US$4,000 per ton.