Goldman Sachs, a financial services company, raised its second-quarter LME aluminum average price outlook to US$3,200 per ton, citing major production losses in the Middle East and Mozambique.

Regional conflicts and damaged energy infrastructure have cut output at Qatalum and Aluminium Bahrain (Alba), while the Mozal smelter entered maintenance. These disruptions are expected to slash the 2026 supply by 850,000 tons.

Although high energy costs push prices up, global demand remains weak. Goldman Sachs lowered its 2026 aluminum demand growth projection to just 0.1% as economic momentum slows. This creates a unique market imbalance: a projected 900,000-ton shortage in the second quarter despite an overall yearly surplus. High speculative positions and potential production increases in China remain key factors that could limit further price increases.